Salmon: Myths Versus Knowledge

After more than a century of intense salmon fishing, today’s catches are estimated at less than half of the 1890′s. Salmon catch has been declining and the State of Oregon wanted to know why.

CSE was contracted to research and prepare a report on the status of salmon in western Oregon and northern California. Under the direction of CSE President Dan Botkin, a blue ribbon panel of scientists was assembled to tackle the salmon issue.

What CSE found was that there is a set of common beliefs that form the background to the debate about salmon in the Pacific Northwest. These beliefs include the ideas that prior to European settlement: there was a super-abundance of salmon; the forests were mainly composed of large ancient trees; this extensive old-growth was essential to the abundance of salmon; and the forests and salmon were at a “steady state”.

One of the purposes of the study was to move beyond commonly held beliefs and address the question: What do we actually know about the status of salmon and the causes of change in that status, using existing scientific information and applying objective analyses?

Initially, CSE researchers encountered a major obstacle. Available data were inadequate to provide definitive answers to the questions posed by Oregon Senate Bill 1125. For example, statistically valid counts of salmon exist for only two of the 26 rivers that flow into the Pacific Ocean in the study area. The most widely used method for counting salmon (peak-count method) is statistically unreliable. Data sets identifying the number and locations of dams are contradictory. These are only a few examples of the lack of reliable data available to the team.

Despite the dearth of data that was statistically reliable, CSE researchers were able to reach important conclusions. In the report the panel shows how careful analyses of existing data can provide valuable insights. If there was a single major cause of salmon failure, it would be easy to improve the present situation. But, as CSE researchers discovered, the status of salmon today is the result of a complex web of factors. Simply stated there are three clusters of causes. One, the spawning grounds, in freshwater streams need to be protected. Two, estuaries and main river stem waterways between the spawning grounds and the ocean need to be accessible and clean. Three, fish harvests need to be better managed.

Evolving Future Policy

CSE responded to the Oregon Senate’s questions with a broad range of recommendations designed both to increase the state of knowledge about salmon habitats and to serve as a basis for a comprehensive plan. Among CSE’s recommendations were the following:

• Establish riparian (the area near streams and rivers) Protection rules for agricultural and urban areas.
• Monitor the effectiveness of riparian rules currently in use on forest lands.
• Develop watershed-based management to organize and implement monitoring programs.
• Redefine water rights to avoid diversions that can eliminate salmon runs.
• Develop realistic and statistically viable models to provide accurate information on salmon populations.
• Develop farther the three options for river utilization described in Findings and Options: (1) the maximum biodiversity option; (2) the commercial harvest option; and, (3) the sport fishing option. Present these options to the legislature and public for discussion and decision.

The overall response to Dr. Botkin’s presentation of the CSE report, Status and Future of Salmon in Western Oregon and Northern California, at seminars on May 15-17, 1995 in Oregon was positive. Representatives from the timber industry and salmon conservationists were seen charting amicably following the presentation. State Senator Bill Bradley (D-24) said, “It (the report) doesn’t relieve anyone from responsibility. We’ve got to point the finger at all of us.” Bill Maxon, the west coast fisheries coordinator for the U.S. Department of Fish and Wildlife stated, “We need to get these results out to the public and look at how to implement the recommendations.

It is now up to the citizens and their elected officials to transform the report’s recommendations into constructive policy initiative that may hold the key to the destiny of this potent symbol of the Pacific Northwest.

Download the Findings and Options Report

See more salmon papers.